Superforecasting

Superforecasting (2015) delves into the art and science of predicting the future, highlighting how most individuals, even experts, often falter in their forecasting abilities. Through captivating stories of successes and failures, as well as interviews with high-profile decision-makers, it unveils the secrets behind effective forecasting: a combination of evidence-based thinking, probabilistic reasoning, accountability, and adaptability.

Philip E. Tetlock is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania. He's a co-leader of the multi-year Good Judgment Project and is the author of Expert Political Judgment and coauthor of Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics with Aaron Belkin. Over his career, he's published over 200 peer-reviewed articles and earned recognition from scientific entities such as the National Academy of Sciences and the American Psychological Association. Dan Gardner is a New York Times best-selling author renowned for his writings on psychology and decision-making. His influential books have achieved global recognition, being published in 25 countries and translated into 19 languages. Before his success as an author, Gardner had an illustrious career in Canadian newspaper journalism, securing numerous accolades and later transitioning to delivering lectures on forecasting, risk, and decision-making.